Mild recession could happen this year
Mild recession could happen this year
COLUMBIA, S.C. (WOLO) – There has been a lot of talk on whether or not the country will see a recession this year.
“If we look back at the past two economic recessions that we’ve had in the United States they have been significant. COVID in 2020, we saw a major pull back in economic activity that everybody is aware of and the recession we saw before that was in 2008 that we call the Great Recession – that took several years to recover from. So if those two recessions are your experience with an economic recession then it makes sense that when you hear a recession might hit us in 2023, you think recession means economic catastrophe,” says University of South Carolina Research Economist Dr. Joseph Von Nessen.
Dr. Von Nessen says there is a 50% probability that a mild recession will happen this year. He names the biggest signs to look out for: a significant pull back in the job market or significant layoff activity.
“We are facing right now a historically tight labor market and that’s good news for workers. South Carolina is close to its lowest level in our history at 3.3% so if we do see a recession this year its likely going to be what I would call a ‘jobful’ recession,” says Dr. Von Nessen. Population trends are very much on our side meaning we are seeing more people move to this region of the country – the southeastern United States including South Carolina and that’s going to continue to generate demand for goods and services.”
When it comes to the Midlands, Dr. Von Nessen says, “The Midlands is in a good position in general because the Midlands is a region of South Carolina that is fairly stable or what I like to call the anchor of the state, meaning the Midlands does not see high levels of growth during economic expansions and it doesn’t really see as much of a contraption during economic recessions. That’s largely because of the industry drivers in the region that includes USC, higher education, state government, and the military all of which are less likely to fluctuate with the booms and bust of the economy as a whole.”
Dr. Von Nessen also says people should always be aware of industry trends and save money regardless of the possibility of a recession.
