She’s not quitting. Takeaways from Nikki Haley’s push to stay in the GOP contest against Trump

Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley looks on as speakers introduce her at an event on Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024, in her hometown of Bamberg, S.C. (AP Photo/Meg Kinnard)

(AP) — Nikki Haley’s team is bracing for a home state embarrassment in South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary on Saturday. Conventional wisdom suggests she’ll be forced to drop out. But that may not apply in 2024.

Ahead of a major speech on Tuesday, Haley told The Associated Press that she’s staying in the race no matter what at least until after another 20 states vote through Super Tuesday on March 5. That’s even as Donald Trump’s MAGA movement is furious that she’s refusing to drop out. After all, she’s the last major candidate standing in his path to the nomination.

The Associated Press spoke with Haley and several senior campaign officials and donors about her strategy ahead of the big speech. Here are some takeaways about how and why she plans to stay in the race:

SHE’S NOT QUITTING

Haley knows there is speculation she may drop out on Tuesday. But she told The Associated Press that she’s not going anywhere until at least after Super Tuesday. Yes, that’s even if she’s blown out by Donald Trump in her home state in Saturday’s South Carolina primary.

“Ten days after South Carolina, another 20 states vote. I mean, this isn’t Russia. We don’t want someone to go in and just get 99% of the vote,” Haley said. “What is the rush? Why is everybody so panicked about me having to get out of this race?”

In case you don’t believe her, her team provided new details about her plans post-South Carolina.

She’s spending more than $500,000 on a new television advertising campaign set to begin running Wednesday in Michigan. Her post-South Carolina travel schedule features 11 separate stops in seven days across Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, Utah, Virginia, Washington, D.C., North Carolina and Massachusetts.

The schedule also includes at least 10 high-dollar private fundraising events.

THE LOSSES MAY PILE UP

Just don’t ask Haley which primary state she’s going to win.

It’s a fair question for someone who says she has a legitimate path to winning the Republican president nomination. But Haley and her team aren’t willing to answer that question specifically. Or maybe they can’t. That’s because polls suggest she’s a major underdog in virtually every state — even the state where she lives and was elected twice as governor — given Trump’s grip on the Republican Party.

Remember, Republican primary elections are typically decided by the party’s most energized partisans — not the broader swath of moderates and independents that are more influential in general elections.

Haley had a fiery answer when pressed on her specific prospects for victory during the AP interview.

“Instead of asking me what states I’m gonna win, why don’t we ask how he’s gonna win a general election after spending a full year in a courtroom?” she said.

Still, Haley’s team says there are several states where she can be competitive with Trump — especially those with open or semi-open primaries that allows a broader collection of voters to participate instead of just hardcore Republicans.

By the way, one of them is South Carolina, which allows voters to participate in whichever presidential primary they want — as long as they only vote once.