Candidates, experts react after new poll shows SC’s US Senate race as neck and neck
(WCIV) — With less than two months until Election Day, the race to fill the late Sen. Lindsay Graham’s seat in the Senate is heating up.
Sen. Darline Graham (left), Dr. Annie Andrews (right)
A new poll released by the Trafalgar Group has Democrat Annie Andrews within striking distance of incumbent Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to the position following the death of her brother in July.
Trafalgar’s most recent poll was conducted between Sept. 23 and 25 and 1,087 people responded. Nearly 60% of those respondents identified as Republicans, close to 30% as Democrats, and around 11% as no party or other. Asking “if the election for US Senate was held tomorrow, for whom would you most likely vote?” the group found 43.4% of respondents would vote for Graham and 42.3% would vote for Andrews, while 8.5% remain undecided and 5.9% would vote for someone else.
Notably, over two thirds of respondents were over the age of 50. Age crosstabs show Graham is highly favored by the older demographic with just over 50% support from both the 50-64 and 65+ age groups while Andrews sits around 36% and 38.5% with both respectively. Younger respondents paint a much different picture.
The 18-29, 30-39, and 40-49 age groups all broke for Andrews in Trafalgar’s poll. Almost 60% of respondents between the ages of 18 and 29 said they would vote for the Democrat if the election was held tomorrow compared to just 18.3% for Graham.
With almost 6% of respondents saying they would vote for another candidate and the poll’s margin of error being 2.9%, how those votes break for other candidates could play a key roll in the outcome of the race. Besides Whitener, Rep. Ralph Norman has garnered some online support as a write-in candidate even though he himself has pledged to support Graham following her emerging victorious in the Aug. primary runoff between the two.
Libertarian candidate Kasie Whitener was not named in the poll, but she and any sort of support for a Norman write-in campaign could effect things come Election Day, according to the Citadel’s Associate Professor of Political Science Dr. Mark Owens.
“Any open seat election means any of the candidates are going to be making a connection to the voters based off of policy, and that does usually help some of the third party candidates get more of the votes that are here,” he said. “Whether there’s a write-in campaign, as more people talk about it, there are voters who are considering it, it’s just that right now it’s confusing because the representative can’t actually say that he’s campaigning for it based off of South Carolina law. But whether or not that’s there, it’s showing that there’s some true believers within this campaign that continue to follow through in this election.”
Read the full poll here.
The campaigns so far and poll reactions
While Sen. Graham has had to manage campaigning and her duties in DC, Andrews has had more freedom to travel the state and campaign. Campaign insiders also noted that Andrews has also been a more forceful presence on television. Federal campaign finance data shows the Andrews campaign has spent well over $1.6 million on media production and advertising, and that’s only what’s been disclosed as of June 30. Her first general election ad debuted on Aug. 26.
Because of the special primary election and runoff, Graham’s TV spending isn’t as clear. Oct. 15’s filing deadline for the October Quarterly report will show spending through Sept. 30 and paint a more complete picture of both campaign’s spending thus far.
Outside of the two campaign’s direct TV spending, some outside groups have pledged thousands to attack who they oppose. Democratic super PAC Fresh Start SC launched a $2.5 million ad campaign on Sept. 16 targeting Graham’s position on healthcare policy which has aired on TV as well as online on YouTube and Google. On Sept. 22, the Women Speak Out PAC, which is partnered with the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, announced the launch of a $1 million campaign targeting Andrews, as well as Democratic nominee for South Carolina Governor Rep. Jermaine Johnson, for their views on abortion, but that campaign was limited to digital ads, voter mail, texts, and phone calls.
“Once voters see the real Annie Andrews – the one who supported defunding the police, defended boys playing in girls’ sports, and opposed tax cuts – the choice will be clear for South Carolina voters,” said T.W. Arrighi with the Graham campaign, which also launched a browser-based “game” called “Annie’s Waiting Room” earlier in September to primarily target the Democrat’s views on abortion and transgender people.
“Annie is traveling across South Carolina, talking about lowering costs, suspending the gas tax, taking on insurance companies, cutting taxes, and tackling the deficit,” said an Andrews campaign spokesperson in a statement responding to the poll. “Meanwhile, Darline Graham has been noticeably absent from the campaign trail. Republican or Democrat, young or old – if you care more about your bills than the politics in Washington, this campaign is for you.”
Analysis and looking ahead
Dr. Owens said the poll shows the race may be a toss up but is in line with what might be expected given the race’s early state.
“So right now, at this point in the election, Democrats across the country seem like they’re more enthusiastic about this election.That’s why they’re more likely to be in the poll for Trafalgar,” he said. “But it does jump to an open seat election. The two candidates are unknown, and they’re going to be defining each other for the next month.”
In terms of takeaways for each campaign, Owens highlighted Democratic voter enthusiasm as a potential boon for Andrews.
“The big key and takeaway for the Andrews campaign is to figure out who wasn’t in this poll,” he said. “So it’s likely voters, and she needs to figure out if she can expand the electorate, but also, one of the things will jump to the fact of if she can get out all of these voters who are more enthusiastic.”
For the Graham campaign, Owens said he expects to see the senator attempt to reach younger voters as she continues to consolidate Republican support.
“[Graham] has the ability to now know who the undecided voters are, so you should expect her to reach out to more of the younger voters,” he continued. “Those that are the 30s and 40s, to try and make up the gap that she has with Andrews right now.”
Owens also harkened back to 2020 when polls and race ratings indicated Democrat nominee Jaime Harrison, who broke fundraising records and raised more than $109 million, would be competitive against the incumbent Sen. Lindsay Graham. Harrison went on to lose that race by double digits. Cook rated that race a toss up while it has the 2026 race as Likely R, a rating that dropped from Solid R on Sept. 23.
“Compared to 2020, the polls back then had Jamie Harrison within three points, and if Annie Andrews is in at one point, this is going to give her an opportunity much closer to the kind of raising that Jamie Harrison had,” he added.
With Trafalgar’s poll within the margin of error, Owens said all eyes will be on the upcoming debate. Graham, Andrews, and Whitener will all take the stage looking to strike a stark contrast to one another on Oct. 11 in Columbia.
