The midterms stakes are high for these 2028 presidential prospects

(AP) — As most of the political world focuses on next month’s midterm elections, the shadow primary for the 2028 presidential contest is quietly playing out in public view.

FILE – An, ” I Voted Today,” sticker is stuck to an information sign at Olbrich Gardens, Aug. 11, 2026, in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

Democratic and Republican presidential prospects have been crisscrossing the country, raising money and tapping their political connections to help boost their parties’ candidates — and their own White House ambitions.

Here’s a closer look at some of the leading prospects and how their political futures may be influenced by what happens Nov. 3.

Newsom has a Southern strategy

Gavin Newsom leaves the California governor’s office at the end of the year, and he’s been among the most active Democrats throughout the midterms.

He’s paid particular attention to the South, where he’s campaigned with candidates up and down the ballot in states like Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina and, not surprisingly, South Carolina, which hosts the party’s first presidential primary contest in 2028.

The Southern focus aligns with the mission of Newsom’s Campaign for Democracy political action committee, which was established in 2023 to help his party compete in red states. But it could also help endear him to African American voters, who make up the heart of the Democratic base.

Newsom’s star power — and his extensive email list — has strengthened his relationships with key Democratic officials in states like Nevada and New Hampshire, where he’s sent out fundraising emails that have generated a surge of donations in recent months.

Perhaps Newsom’s biggest midterm contribution was backing Proposition 50, California’s response to the Texas Republican mid-decade gerrymander. The proposition, approved by California voters last year, created a new congressional map that may allow Democrats to pick up as many as five additional U.S. House seats in California this fall.

As a presidential candidate, the California governor could argue that he was on the front lines of the redistricting battle. But if Democrats do not win all five seats in his state, Newsom’s message could be muffled.

Vance’s fate is tied to Trump

No potential candidate’s fate is as closely tied to President Donald Trump and Republicans’ performance as Vice President JD Vance.

The 42-year-old has embarked on an aggressive midterm campaign schedule — from the Midwest, to the South, to Alaska — and focused on the administration’s efforts to root out fraud.

A key state will be Ohio, which Vance briefly represented in the Senate. Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill Vance’s seat in 2025, is facing an aggressive challenge from former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. And in the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton is in a close contest with Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.

The effectiveness of the conservative group Turning Point Action will also be scrutinized. Erika Kirk, the widow of Turning Point co-founder Charlie Kirk and the organization’s new leader, has already endorsed Vance’s potential presidential bid and leaders have said they intend to use the group to support his campaign.

Vance has said he is not focused on running for president, but “trying to help elect Republicans.”

Shapiro is all about Pennsylvania

Among the Democrats leading the 2028 conversation, none have done less beyond their home state than Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. He hasn’t visited any early primary states or campaigned with any midterm candidates beyond his state.

That’s by design for a 53-year-old Democrat whose selling point as a presidential candidate might be his clout in Pennsylvania, which has emerged as perhaps the most important swing state in the nation.

Shapiro is expected to cruise to reelection over his Republican challenger, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, which has allowed him to spend his political capital elsewhere.

Shapiro has gone all in to ensure Democrats win both chambers of the state legislature in November, and he’s devoted significant time and resources to flipping four congressional seats.

If Shapiro can demonstrate strength in swing counties like Beaver, Luzerne or Erie, it could help him make a credible claim to winning back some of the working-class voters that Democrats have lost in the Trump era.

Beshear faces risk and reward

As chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear may have done more than any other potential candidate to boost his national profile during the midterms. He’ll headline a get-out-the-vote tour through key states, beginning with Nevada on Oct. 22.

He also spent some of the campaign on a national book tour, allowing him to cozy up to influential Democrats in early states.

Still, Beshear’s spending decisions as chief of the governors association in 2026 may present the highest risk and reward for him heading into 2028.

He’s been active in supporting Democratic candidates in traditional swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona while pushing into Republican-leaning states like Ohio and Iowa, places he argues could be critical in the next White House campaign.

But Democrats in other states are clamoring for more resources and warning Beshear of blowback if he doesn’t deliver. Under pressure, the governors association sent $1 million this week to help the candidate for Texas governor, Gina Hinojosa.

Cruz hits the road

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has long been one of his party’s most active campaigners and fundraisers, and he is continuing those efforts this year as he openly weighs another presidential bid.

His Truth and Courage PAC has spent more than $2.4 million this year on ads supporting midterm candidates, according to AdImpact, mostly to help Senate candidate Ken Paxton in his home state.

Cruz has traveled three times to Iowa, the first state on Republicans’ nominating calendar and where he won the caucuses during the 2016 primary. He’ll be in Alaska next week, and is also planning trips to South Carolina, North Carolina and most likely Michigan.

Pritzker’s money plays

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker is seeking his third term in November, but the Democrat has focused more on helping midterm candidates in other states.

Pritzker’s team says the billionaire Democrat has already donated $38 million to the party’s midterm efforts, including personal donations and roughly $20 million through his Ready for the Fight PAC, which is focused on taking down MAGA candidates, even in long-shot districts.

More than other 2028 prospects, Pritzker has been focused on the Texas governor’s race, where he donated $1 million this week, on top of $200,000 he gave earlier. He’s also been active on the speaker circuit, having participated in more than 75 events across the country, including in Nevada and New Hampshire. He’s expected to visit South Carolina before Election Day as well.

AOC’s progressive politics face a test

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York has been increasingly open about a potential presidential run, where she would be a major player in the Democratic Party’s progressive lane.

But first, she’s trying to prove that her brand of politics can succeed in a presidential swing state like Michigan, where she has thrown her weight behind Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. They appeared together this week at a New York City fundraiser, and she cast his campaign as a broader test for the progressive movement.

“If Abdul can win in Michigan, anybody can win anywhere,” Ocasio-Cortez told the audience.

Ocasio-Cortez and other Democrats have acknowledged that she’ll face questions about whether she can appeal to voters across the country. Ocasio-Cortez argues an El-Sayed victory in Michigan, which is one of the early states in the next Democratic presidential primary, could challenge some of those assumptions.

Buttigieg keeps a busy schedule

Since leaving his job as transportation secretary under President Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg has had the luxury of free time. He has used it to aggressively travel across the country, raising money and campaigning for Democrats on the ballot this year.

Buttigieg has endorsed nearly 100 candidates this cycle, from state legislative contests to U.S. Senate races, and has appeared on the campaign trail with roughly half of them, according to his team. He has visited 37 states since leaving office.

The range of those appearances also offers a glimpse at Buttigieg’s appeal within the party.

Democrats have welcomed him even in deeply Republican territory, including Nancy Lacore, a U.S. House candidate in South Carolina who campaigned with Buttigieg in August. He also helped bring Democratic candidates together for a Michigan unity event in August after hotly contested primaries.