Do Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts Benefit Anyone?

This time every year, several organizations publish their forecasts for the upcoming Hurricane Season. They generally give a probabilistic forecast of the likelihood of a busy or not so busy season. The NOAA forecast for this year is as follows:

“Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.”

So what does this forecast mean? Can anyone take action based on this forecast? The answer is: no. These forecasts, though interesting, are not useful to anyone. At present, they are not able to tell the 3 most important things about the upcoming season: 1) when a storm will hit, 2) where a storm will hit, or 3) how strong a storm will be once it arrives.

Researchers have shown that if these forecasts improve, they could have economic benefit for a given insurance company. (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00017.1) But that assumes that a specific insurance company would be able to have a competitive advantage by having this knowledge, while the people it does business with would not have the same knowledge.

To be clear, scientific research has undisputed benefits for all. And research into these Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts could ultimately benefit society. But at present the annual release of these forecasts is not benefiting anyone. One suggestion would be to keep doing research into these Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts, but only publish the forecasts when they actually deliver measurable benefit.